EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly 3/21/2024. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Arcane

64.2%

8.1% share · 10 matches

1st

Wind Allies

67.2%

5.4% share · 6 matches

2.7% share · 2 matches

↓ low

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Allies	2	5.4%	6	91.7%	51.0%	67.2%	51.0%	1455	↑ top
2	Fire Arcane	3	8.1%	10	85.0%	51.2%	64.2%	50.6%	1381	—
3	Fire Tonoris	1	2.7%	2	100.0%	51.4%	60.0%	50.8%	1244	↓ low
4	Water Neos	1	2.7%	4	75.0%	52.1%	57.6%	50.9%	1367	—
5	Fire Luxem Assassin	2	5.4%	7	64.3%	50.7%	57.5%	50.6%	1449	↑ top
6	Wind Arcane	1	2.7%	4	50.0%	50.1%	51.4%	50.2%	1471	↑ top
7	Water Allies	9	24.3%	23	54.3%	50.9%	49.8%	50.2%	1292	—
8	Fire Crux Hybrid	3	8.1%	10	60.0%	50.8%	48.5%	49.9%	1334	—
9	Fire Erupting	3	8.1%	10	40.0%	48.9%	46.8%	49.4%	1409	↑ top
10	Fire Crux Mage	2	5.4%	7	42.9%	50.1%	46.0%	49.9%	1415	↑ top
11	Fire Umbra Ranger	1	2.7%	4	25.0%	48.5%	43.3%	49.3%	1204	↓ low
12	Wind Umbra Ranger	1	2.7%	3	33.3%	49.3%	43.3%	49.3%	1210	↓ low
13	Fire Neos	1	2.7%	4	50.0%	49.0%	42.9%	49.0%	1426	↑ top
14	Water Astra Cleric	1	2.7%	3	33.3%	48.8%	41.5%	49.0%	1582	↑ top
15	Fire Tera Tamer	1	2.7%	3	0.0%	49.4%	40.0%	49.4%	1138	↓ low
16	Water Umbra Ranger	1	2.7%	2	0.0%	48.9%	40.0%	49.3%	1314	—
17	Wind Tera Silvie	1	2.7%	3	0.0%	49.1%	40.0%	49.5%	1000	↓ low
18	Wind Umbra Diana	2	5.4%	4	0.0%	48.0%	40.0%	49.3%	1173	↓ low
19	Wind Zander	1	2.7%	3	0.0%	48.0%	34.5%	48.6%	1190	↓ low