EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Yeti Revelfest Weekly Event 3/6/2025. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Exia

60.0%

2.6% share · 3 matches

2.6% share · 4 matches

2.6% share · 4 matches

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#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Aggro	1	2.6%	4	75.0%	49.7%	61.0%	50.2%	1569	↑ top
2	Fire Exia	1	2.6%	3	100.0%	52.1%	60.0%	51.0%	1164	↓ low
3	Fire Luxem Assassin	1	2.6%	4	100.0%	52.1%	60.0%	50.8%	1444	↑ top
4	Fire Umbra Ranger	2	5.3%	7	57.1%	50.1%	55.2%	50.2%	1209	↓ low
5	Fire Crux Mage	4	10.5%	14	53.6%	50.8%	54.4%	50.5%	1389	—
6	Water Silvie	1	2.6%	3	66.7%	51.3%	53.1%	50.6%	1316	—
7	Wind Shadowstrike	5	13.2%	16	59.4%	50.5%	52.9%	50.3%	1362	—
8	Wind Allies	2	5.3%	6	50.0%	50.0%	52.5%	50.4%	1368	—
9	Slimes	1	2.6%	4	50.0%	50.2%	49.0%	50.2%	1299	—
10	Water Crux Mage	4	10.5%	14	39.3%	48.0%	48.4%	49.3%	1436	↑ top
11	Water Allies	4	10.5%	11	45.5%	49.0%	47.8%	49.6%	1420	↑ top
12	Fire Jin	1	2.6%	4	50.0%	51.0%	47.7%	50.2%	1171	↓ low
13	Water Ravishing Mill	2	5.3%	6	50.0%	50.8%	47.5%	50.2%	1441	↑ top
14	Water Umbra Diana	1	2.6%	3	33.3%	50.2%	46.7%	50.1%	1186	↓ low
15	Wind Razorgale	1	2.6%	3	16.7%	49.0%	46.7%	49.9%	1047	↓ low
16	Fire Astra Cleric	1	2.6%	4	50.0%	50.9%	46.7%	50.3%	1083	↓ low
17	Fire Tera Mage	1	2.6%	4	25.0%	49.4%	45.0%	49.8%	1328	—
18	Wind Overlord	1	2.6%	2	25.0%	50.0%	45.0%	50.0%	1159	↓ low
19	Wind Astra Cleric	4	10.5%	13	42.3%	49.2%	44.7%	49.6%	1344	—
20	Wind Exia	1	2.6%	3	0.0%	48.2%	40.0%	49.2%	1272	↓ low