← Yeti Webcam Weekly 3/28/2024
Water AlliesTier 1
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 3/28/2024
decks
4
(10.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
8-5-2
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.3%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
54.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1415
· median 1445
· range 1201–1567
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1095
Q1 1252
Q3 1414
1656
75% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 15.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 51.8% | +1.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 7.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.3% | -0.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Wind Allies | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 5.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.5% | -0.9 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Water Tonoris | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
