CakeTCG Online Weekly #2

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Fire Seiryuu	Tier 1	2	11.1%	3-2-0	60.0%	50.8%	50.0%	50.1%	1131	↓ low
2		Fire Umbra Ranger	Tier 2	2	11.1%	0-5-0	0.0%	47.6%	40.0%	49.2%	1207	—
3		Water Fractal	Tier 2	2	11.1%	2-3-1	41.7%	49.0%	45.2%	49.4%	1402	↑ top
4		Wind Allies	Tier 1	2	11.1%	4-0-2	83.3%	51.9%	58.1%	50.8%	1218	—
5		Wind Exia	Tier 2	2	11.1%	2-4-0	33.3%	49.9%	45.8%	49.9%	1160	↓ low
6		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 1	2	11.1%	5-0-1	91.7%	51.2%	59.3%	50.4%	1446	↑ top
7		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 1	1	5.6%	1-1-1	50.0%	50.0%	50.0%	50.0%	1300	↑ top
8		Fire Dawn of Ashes	Tier 1	1	5.6%	2-1-0	66.7%	49.8%	50.0%	49.7%	1162	↓ low
9		Fire Neos	Tier 2	1	5.6%	0-3-0	0.0%	48.1%	40.0%	49.2%	1203	—
10		Fire Tonoris	Tier 2	1	5.6%	1-2-0	33.3%	49.5%	44.0%	49.5%	1199	↓ low
11		Slimes	Tier 1	1	5.6%	2-1-0	66.7%	50.9%	56.0%	50.6%	1202	—
12		Wind Seiryuu	Tier 1	1	5.6%	1-1-1	50.0%	50.8%	52.0%	50.4%	1276	—

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Fire Seiryuu 2 decks · 11.1%
• Fire Umbra Ranger 2 decks · 11.1%
• Water Fractal 2 decks · 11.1%
• Wind Allies 2 decks · 11.1%
• Wind Exia 2 decks · 11.1%
• Wind Shadowstrike 2 decks · 11.1%
• Fire Crux Mage 1 deck · 5.6%
• Fire Dawn of Ashes 1 deck · 5.6%
• Fire Neos 1 deck · 5.6%
• Fire Tonoris 1 deck · 5.6%
• Slimes 1 deck · 5.6%
• Wind Seiryuu 1 deck · 5.6%