Water FractalTier 2
at CakeTCG Online Weekly #2
decks
2
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.0%
avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
45.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1402
· median 1402
· range 1262–1543
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1172
Q3 1289
1543
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Seiryuu | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Wind Exia | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Fire Tonoris | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Slimes | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
