← Texas HVN Regional - Reaper Game Store
Fire SuzakuTier 2
at Texas HVN Regional - Reaper Game Store
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 11.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.4% | -5.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.0% | -6.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.2% | -11.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.6% | +13.0 |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Water Kongming | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewing Fowl | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Broken Promises | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lavaplume Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamebreak Chorus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Baby Red Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |