← Texas HVN Regional - Reaper Game Store
Water FractalTier 1
at Texas HVN Regional - Reaper Game Store
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.0% | -13.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 63.9% | +8.9 |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 44.9% | -2.9 |
| Wind Allies | 6.5% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 44.2% | -3.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.6% | +5.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.3% | -18.9 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.4% | -9.2 |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 72.6% | +16.9 |
| Wind Exia | 3.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.9% | -13.6 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.3% | +12.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.6% | +8.2 |
| Wind Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Torpid Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Automated Gardener | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |