← Texas HVN Regional - Reaper Game Store
Water AlliesTier 1
at Texas HVN Regional - Reaper Game Store
decks
4
(6.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
25
14-8-3
overall winrate
62.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.5%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
56.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1352
· median 1352
· range 1126–1578
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1029
Q1 1179
Q3 1347
1607
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 11.3% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 55.1% | +2.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 65.0% | +11.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +2.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 30.9% | -14.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.9% | -3.9 |
| Wind Exia | 3.2% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -3.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Water Kongming | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
