← Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly 3/20/2025
Water FractalTier 1
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly 3/20/2025
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 6.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.9% | -0.8 |
| Wind Allies | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.7 |
| Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Water Luxem Zander | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 40 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 40 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Captivating Opulence | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Shimmering Refraction | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Insight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torpid Fractal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |