Fire AggroTier 1
at 3/29 大圖盃台中預賽
decks
2
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
10-4-1
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.0%
avg ELO +1.6 per match
expected value
54.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1448
· median 1448
· range 1360–1535
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1110
Q1 1175
Q3 1362
1694
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.5 |
| Water Fractal | 10.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.6% | -0.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Wind Allies | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.6 |
| Fire Byakko | 5.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 53.8% | +3.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 53.8% | +3.6 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.4% | -2.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.7 |
