Water FractalTier 1
at 3/29 大圖盃台中預賽
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 52.7% | +2.6 |
| Wind Allies | 7.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.0% | +0.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.4% | +0.3 |
| Fire Byakko | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.4% | +4.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 52.1% | +2.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Mana | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostnip Pirouette | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torpid Fractal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Austere Priestess | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |