Fire SuzakuTier 2
at 3/29 大圖盃台中預賽
decks
3
(7.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
5-11-0
overall winrate
31.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.0%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
42.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1385
· median 1387
· range 1312–1455
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1110
Q1 1175
Q3 1362
1694
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 47.8% | -2.1 |
| Water Fractal | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 47.3% | -2.6 |
| Wind Allies | 7.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.7% | +1.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.0% | -3.2 |
| Fire Byakko | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.1 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
