← 3/29 大圖盃台中預賽

Fire Tera Diao ChanTier 2

at 3/29 大圖盃台中預賽

decks
2 (5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5 0-3-2
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.3% avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
43.8% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1186 · median 1186 · range 1173–1199 (2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1110 Q1 1175 Q3 1362 1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 50% in the bottom. This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Shadowstrike 15.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 50.0% +0.0
Water Fractal 10.0% 0
Fire Suzaku 7.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 48.6% -2.2
Wind Allies 7.5% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.9% -0.2
Wind Seiryuu 7.5% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% +0.0
Fire Aggro 5.0% 0
Fire Byakko 5.0% 0
Fire Crux Mage 5.0% 0
Water Genbu 5.0% 0
Fire Cinderbloom Combo 2.5% 0
Fire Crux Merlin 2.5% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 2.5% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 2.5% 0
Water Allies 2.5% 0
Water Byakko 2.5% 0
Water Crux Mage 2.5% 0
Water Kongming 2.5% 0
Water Neos 2.5% 0
Water Tera Kongming 2.5% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 2.5% 0
Wind Diana 2.5% 0
Wind Luxem Assassin 2.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 48.5% -2.4
Wind Luxem Zander 2.5% 0
Decklists · 2 from this event

The 2 public Fire Tera Diao Chan decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 12 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 12 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Viridian Protective Trinket -1.00 0 1 0
Dungeon Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace +1.00 1 0 0
Rococo, Explosive Maven -1.00 0 1 0
Mystic Purifier -1.00 0 1 0
Coronation Ceremony -1.00 0 1 0
Stalwart Shieldmate +1.00 1 0 0
Sigil of Budding Embers +1.00 1 0 0
Restorative Flame -1.00 0 1 0
Crystallized Destiny +1.00 1 0 0
Nullifying Mirror -1.00 0 1 0
Annul Spell +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/22094/archetypes/Fire Tera Diao Chan