Fire ArcaneTier 1
at HVN Store Championship
decks
1
(4.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
5-2-1
overall winrate
68.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
63.2%
avg ELO +6.4 per match
expected value
56.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1607
· median 1607
· range 1607–1607
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1155
Q1 1210
Q3 1425
1607
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 16.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.1% | +3.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.8% | -3.1 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Water Kongming | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Arcane decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
