Water Tera MageTier 2
at HVN Store Championship
decks
1
(4.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.0%
avg ELO -1.7 per match
expected value
45.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1278
· median 1278
· range 1278–1278
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1155
Q1 1210
Q3 1425
1607
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 16.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Wind Kongming | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tera Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
