Water FractalTier 2
at HVN Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.7% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 41.7% | -5.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +3.4 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.2% | +6.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.9% | -3.0 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -11.9 |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.7 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 19 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torpid Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |