EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Whimsy Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 5 | 17.9% | 20 | 72.5% | 59.2% | 55.6% | 52.9% | 1466 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 80.0% | 59.4% | 53.3% | 51.5% | 1496 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 10.7% | 15 | 63.3% | 61.2% | 52.7% | 52.9% | 1413 | — |
| 4 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.6% | 6 | 75.0% | 54.4% | 52.7% | 49.4% | 1408 | — |
| 5 | Wind Allies | 1 | 3.6% | 2 | 50.0% | 53.3% | 52.5% | 55.2% | 1365 | — |
| 6 | Water Genbu | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 51.2% | 51.4% | 50.5% | 1500 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 7.1% | 9 | 44.4% | 49.1% | 51.0% | 52.6% | 1447 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Exia | 2 | 7.1% | 10 | 50.0% | 47.6% | 48.1% | 48.4% | 1312 | — |
| 9 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | 50.2% | 1362 | — |
| 10 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.6% | 6 | 58.3% | 54.0% | 47.0% | 46.9% | 1352 | — |
| 11 | Water Overlord | 2 | 7.1% | 8 | 31.2% | 41.3% | 46.3% | 47.8% | 1290 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 3 | 10.7% | 13 | 42.3% | 44.3% | 45.1% | 45.6% | 1380 | — |
| 13 | Water Allies | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 50.5% | 45.0% | 48.2% | 1267 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Polkhawk | 1 | 3.6% | 6 | 33.3% | 44.6% | 44.3% | 46.1% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 3.6% | 4 | 12.5% | 34.1% | 43.3% | 44.0% | 1234 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Tera Mage | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 30.0% | 48.3% | 43.1% | 47.6% | 1184 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 3.6% | 3 | 0.0% | 30.6% | 40.0% | 40.9% | 1331 | — |
| 18 | Wind Neos | 1 | 3.6% | 3 | 0.0% | 41.6% | 35.8% | 44.5% | 1062 | ↓ low |