EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 松江貓 HVN店冠賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 9.4% | 13 | 65.4% | 63.5% | 58.2% | 58.8% | 1400 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1 | 3.1% | 7 | 78.6% | 57.7% | 56.4% | 52.5% | 1568 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Allies | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 80.0% | 58.4% | 55.7% | 53.3% | 1419 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 9.4% | 9 | 55.6% | 45.6% | 53.9% | 48.9% | 1343 | — |
| 5 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 6.2% | 9 | 55.6% | 51.8% | 52.5% | 52.8% | 1270 | — |
| 6 | Water Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 49.7% | 52.0% | 48.7% | 1441 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Allies | 5 | 15.6% | 17 | 52.9% | 53.1% | 51.0% | 50.9% | 1439 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 3.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 55.6% | 50.0% | 51.4% | 1217 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 6.2% | 7 | 42.9% | 42.5% | 48.7% | 48.1% | 1404 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Genbu | 1 | 3.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 41.1% | 47.5% | 47.1% | 1324 | — |
| 11 | Wind Shadowstrike | 4 | 12.5% | 14 | 46.4% | 37.4% | 47.4% | 44.1% | 1378 | — |
| 12 | Wind Diana | 1 | 3.1% | 4 | 37.5% | 53.2% | 47.0% | 50.7% | 1085 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Fractal | 3 | 9.4% | 11 | 50.0% | 57.3% | 46.1% | 48.8% | 1266 | — |
| 14 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 6.2% | 8 | 25.0% | 47.9% | 44.7% | 50.1% | 1171 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 3.1% | 3 | 16.7% | 44.5% | 40.7% | 46.1% | 1331 | — |
| 16 | Wind Overlord | 1 | 3.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 40.4% | 40.0% | 45.9% | 1182 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 3.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 34.1% | 40.0% | 40.2% | 1593 | ↑ top |