EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Abyssal Heaven UK Regional!.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 11.1% | 13 | 84.6% | 60.8% | 62.0% | 54.2% | 1412 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Fractal | 4 | 22.2% | 17 | 67.6% | 61.4% | 55.2% | 53.9% | 1301 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.9% | 50.0% | 50.9% | 1163 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 11.1% | 11 | 50.0% | 57.6% | 48.9% | 52.5% | 1115 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Exia | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 55.1% | 47.5% | 47.8% | 1198 | — |
| 6 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 42.0% | 46.7% | 46.5% | 1177 | — |
| 7 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 5.6% | 6 | 50.0% | 49.2% | 45.2% | 45.5% | 1271 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Astra Cleric | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 44.6% | 45.0% | 47.0% | 1185 | — |
| 9 | Wind Diao Chan | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.1% | 44.0% | 46.1% | 1054 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Kongming | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 20.0% | 42.4% | 42.2% | 45.9% | 1097 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 51.0% | 41.7% | 46.0% | 1163 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Slimes | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 10.0% | 29.1% | 41.7% | 41.8% | 1140 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 10.0% | 29.9% | 41.4% | 42.7% | 1142 | ↓ low |