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Fire Crux MerlinTier 2
at Capybara Cards Store Championship
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-1-1
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.3%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
49.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1584
· median 1584
· range 1584–1584
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1084
Q1 1202
Q3 1382
1584
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 31.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.6% | -10.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.3% | +8.0 |
| Water Genbu | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
