← Capybara Cards Store Championship
Water GenbuTier 2
at Capybara Cards Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 31.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.4% | -5.4 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.3% | +6.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 19 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildheart Lyre | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |