← Capybara Cards Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 2
at Capybara Cards Store Championship
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.0%
avg ELO +1.7 per match
expected value
47.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1249
· median 1249
· range 1249–1249
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1084
Q1 1202
Q3 1382
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 31.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.3% | -2.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Water Genbu | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +2.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
