Fayble Regional

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Water Fractal	Tier 1	45	23.7%	126-90-16	57.8%	56.3%	55.4%	55.0%	1334	—
2		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 2	24	12.6%	51-64-17	45.1%	45.1%	47.7%	47.2%	1275	—
3		Fire Aggro	Tier 1	16	8.4%	48-44-5	52.1%	48.7%	49.9%	47.5%	1353	—
4		Wind Allies	Tier 2	16	8.4%	42-47-9	47.4%	50.2%	47.3%	48.9%	1297	—
5		Fire Suzaku	Tier 2	10	5.3%	22-36-4	38.7%	50.5%	40.6%	48.9%	1223	↓ low
6		Water Genbu	Tier 1	10	5.3%	29-28-8	50.8%	52.5%	48.7%	49.2%	1261	—
7		Wind Astra Cleric	Tier 1	10	5.3%	28-24-13	53.1%	50.9%	51.2%	49.2%	1287	—
8		Wind Seiryuu	Tier 1	10	5.3%	31-26-4	54.1%	56.4%	52.6%	53.1%	1301	—
9		Wind Luxem Zander	Tier 2	6	3.2%	12-12-6	50.0%	49.5%	47.4%	47.9%	1333	—
10		Fire Cinderbloom Combo	Tier 2	4	2.1%	13-10-2	56.0%	45.5%	51.7%	45.8%	1384	↑ top
11		Fire Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	4	2.1%	11-7-2	60.0%	40.0%	51.9%	44.9%	1415	↑ top
12		Fire Exia	Tier 2	3	1.6%	9-7-3	55.3%	63.8%	48.0%	53.6%	1237	↓ low
13		Water Allies	Tier 3	3	1.6%	10-11-0	47.6%	39.1%	48.9%	45.2%	1216	↓ low
14		Wind Exia	Tier 2	3	1.6%	8-4-6	61.1%	54.0%	57.5%	54.9%	1570	↑ top
15		Wind Kongming	Tier 3	3	1.6%	2-10-1	19.2%	36.1%	41.0%	44.8%	1201	↓ low
16		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 3	2	1.1%	3-7-2	33.3%	37.3%	39.1%	37.8%	1277	—
17		Fire Firebloom Burn	Tier 3	2	1.1%	4-6-0	40.0%	58.3%	44.8%	53.9%	1241	↓ low
18		Slimes	Tier 3	2	1.1%	1-7-0	12.5%	29.1%	44.3%	45.2%	1216	↓ low
19		Wind Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	2	1.1%	8-6-2	56.2%	50.3%	55.3%	52.3%	1304	—
20		Fire Astra Cleric	Tier 2	1	0.5%	6-1-1	81.2%	63.6%	60.4%	57.5%	1519	↑ top
21		Fire Crux Hybrid	Tier 3	1	0.5%	1-3-0	25.0%	28.5%	40.7%	38.0%	1482	↑ top
22		Fire Crux Merlin	Tier 3	1	0.5%	1-3-0	25.0%	38.2%	46.3%	45.7%	1166	↓ low
23		Fire Polkhawk	Tier 3	1	0.5%	1-5-2	25.0%	33.0%	41.4%	42.4%	1111	↓ low
24		Fire Rai	Tier 3	1	0.5%	2-3-1	41.7%	48.9%	42.2%	45.6%	1393	↑ top
25		Fire Slimes	Tier 3	1	0.5%	0-8-0	0.0%	39.0%	31.9%	43.9%	807	↓ low
26		Water Crux Mage	Tier 3	1	0.5%	4-3-0	57.1%	60.0%	47.8%	51.1%	1338	—
27		Water Penguin Mill	Tier 2	1	0.5%	5-3-0	62.5%	48.1%	48.0%	44.0%	1429	↑ top
28		Water Ravishing Mill	Tier 3	1	0.5%	1-3-1	30.0%	35.6%	45.2%	43.3%	1401	↑ top
29		Water Tera Cleric	Tier 3	1	0.5%	0-3-0	0.0%	29.6%	40.0%	41.5%	1138	↓ low
30		Wind Arcane	Tier 2	1	0.5%	2-4-2	37.5%	50.0%	50.3%	54.2%	1095	↓ low
31		Wind Crux Lorraine	Tier 2	1	0.5%	4-1-3	68.8%	50.7%	54.6%	49.4%	1393	↑ top
32		Wind Neos	Tier 3	1	0.5%	1-4-0	20.0%	32.9%	41.9%	42.3%	1389	↑ top
33		Wind Slice & Dice	Tier 2	1	0.5%	4-3-1	56.2%	59.5%	49.3%	52.9%	1233	↓ low
34		Wind Umbra Tristan	Tier 2	1	0.5%	5-2-1	68.8%	58.1%	58.4%	57.1%	1220	↓ low

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Water Fractal 45 decks · 23.7%
• Wind Shadowstrike 24 decks · 12.6%
• Fire Aggro 16 decks · 8.4%
• Wind Allies 16 decks · 8.4%
• Fire Suzaku 10 decks · 5.3%
• Water Genbu 10 decks · 5.3%
• Wind Astra Cleric 10 decks · 5.3%
• Wind Seiryuu 10 decks · 5.3%
• Wind Luxem Zander 6 decks · 3.2%
• Fire Cinderbloom Combo 4 decks · 2.1%
• Fire Luxem Assassin 4 decks · 2.1%
• Fire Exia 3 decks · 1.6%
• Water Allies 3 decks · 1.6%
• Wind Exia 3 decks · 1.6%
• Wind Kongming 3 decks · 1.6%
• Fire Crux Mage 2 decks · 1.1%
• Fire Firebloom Burn 2 decks · 1.1%
• Slimes 2 decks · 1.1%
• Wind Luxem Assassin 2 decks · 1.1%
• Fire Astra Cleric 1 deck · 0.5%
• Fire Crux Hybrid 1 deck · 0.5%
• Fire Crux Merlin 1 deck · 0.5%
• Fire Polkhawk 1 deck · 0.5%
• Fire Rai 1 deck · 0.5%
• Fire Slimes 1 deck · 0.5%
• Water Crux Mage 1 deck · 0.5%
• Water Penguin Mill 1 deck · 0.5%
• Water Ravishing Mill 1 deck · 0.5%
• Water Tera Cleric 1 deck · 0.5%
• Wind Arcane 1 deck · 0.5%
• Wind Crux Lorraine 1 deck · 0.5%
• Wind Neos 1 deck · 0.5%
• Wind Slice & Dice 1 deck · 0.5%
• Wind Umbra Tristan 1 deck · 0.5%