Wind ExiaTier 2
at Fayble Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 23.7% | 4 | 2-0-2 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.6% | +6.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 8.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.3 |
| Wind Allies | 8.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.1% | +6.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.3% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.5% | -5.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +2.0 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 2.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.6% | +2.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Rai | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.9% | -9.7 |
| Wind Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 15 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 15 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aesan Protector | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Infusion of Crescent Jade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enrage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Attack | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windspire Crest | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhang Fei, Spirited Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |