Fire Crux MageTier 3
at Fayble Regional
decks
2
(1.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
3-7-2
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.3%
avg ELO -5.4 per match
expected value
39.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
37.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1277
· median 1277
· range 1163–1392
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1203
Q3 1395
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 23.7% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 23.8% | -19.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.8% | -6.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Wind Kongming | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
