Fire Crux MageTier 1
at HVN Store Championship
decks
2
(4.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
4-5-0
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.4%
avg ELO -5.8 per match
expected value
53.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1286
· median 1286
· range 1171–1400
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1141
Q3 1355
1642
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 19.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.4% | -5.4 |
| Wind Allies | 14.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.7% | +6.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.0% | -14.4 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -22.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Shadowstrike | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
