Water FractalTier 1
at HVN Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.6% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 55.4% | +2.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -1.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.6% | +5.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.5% | +15.9 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Water Allies | 4.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 64.7% | +10.9 |
| Water Genbu | 4.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -2.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.1% | +5.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.5% | +6.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.1% | +5.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Water Shadowstrike | 2.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.3% | +8.9 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.7 |
| Wind Exia | 2.4% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 33.6% | -10.5 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.3% | +10.9 |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -4.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -3.8 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Chill to the Bone, Fast Cure, Unstable Fractal. Losers more often ran: Frostbind.
Show all 50 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 45 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Disenchant | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glimmering Refusal | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torpid Fractal | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbitten Etui | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Novice Healer | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Protective Fractal | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |