Wind AlliesTier 2
at HVN Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 19.5% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 44.6% | -2.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.1% | -14.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.3% | -6.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 4.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -3.0 |
| Water Allies | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -7.9 |
| Water Genbu | 4.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.9% | 4 | 0-2-2 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 36.1% | -8.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.2% | +6.0 |
| Water Shadowstrike | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 67 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 67 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Banner Knight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Cutter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Inspiring Call | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Phalanx Captain | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mark of Fervor | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr's Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Warrior's Longsword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Temptation's Facade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unrelenting Warden | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nico, Whiplash Allure | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rebounding Gust | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Charged Mannequin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Winbless Hurricane Farm | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shangxiang, Fierce Princess | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rallied Advance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manufacture Cell | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Second Wind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |