EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GGM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Genbu | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 100.0% | 66.6% | 60.0% | 56.1% | 1446 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 100.0% | 66.6% | 60.0% | 56.1% | 1446 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 58.3% | 49.7% | 53.8% | 51.0% | 1303 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 66.7% | 59.4% | 53.3% | 53.1% | 1249 | — |
| 5 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 54.4% | 53.3% | 52.6% | 1365 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Overlord | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 54.4% | 53.3% | 52.6% | 1365 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Fractal | 2 | 16.7% | 9 | 55.6% | 63.6% | 53.1% | 56.4% | 1135 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 75.0% | 57.1% | 52.0% | 50.0% | 1252 | — |
| 9 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 50.0% | 53.5% | 50.0% | 51.2% | 1208 | — |
| 10 | Fire Ravishing Mill | 2 | 16.7% | 9 | 44.4% | 43.8% | 46.7% | 45.8% | 1267 | — |
| 11 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 30.0% | 48.3% | 45.7% | 49.2% | 1058 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Overlord | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 20.0% | 34.6% | 43.3% | 43.4% | 1283 | — |
| 13 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 16.7% | 19.7% | 42.9% | 39.5% | 1413 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Water Neos | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 0.0% | 33.1% | 37.8% | 43.2% | 985 | ↓ low |