Fire ExiaTier 2
at HVN Store Championship
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-4-1
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.1%
avg ELO -3.2 per match
expected value
42.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1218
· median 1218
· range 1218–1218
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
985
Q1 1216
Q3 1407
1610
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 15.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
