Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at HVN Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 15.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.1% | -5.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 9.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +3.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.3 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.3 |
| Wind Kongming | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.4 |
| Wind Overlord | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Defender's Maul | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |