Fire Firebloom BurnTier 2
at HVN Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 15.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -2.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.5% | -12.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -2.3 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.7% | -10.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashwick Cremator | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glowering Conflagration | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Allied Warpriestess | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ravenous Pyre | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Everflame Staff | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acolyte of Cultivation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |