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Wind SeiryuuTier 2

at HVN Store Championship

decks
4 (12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16 8-8-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.2% avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
46.5% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.8% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1375 · median 1395 · range 1303–1409 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
985 Q1 1216 Q3 1407 1610
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Genbu 15.6% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 36.5% -13.0
Fire Aggro 9.4% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 46.2% -3.7
Water Fractal 9.4% 4 1-3-0 25.0% 37.5% 42.4% -4.9
Water Ravishing Mill 9.4% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 6.2% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 63.5% +12.9
Wind Allies 6.2% 0
Wind Shadowstrike 6.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.8% -16.3
Wind Umbra Ranger 6.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.2% +14.7
Fire Crux Mage 3.1% 0
Fire Exia 3.1% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 3.1% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 63.4% +12.9
Fire Slimes 3.1% 0
Fire Suzaku 3.1% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 3.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.7% -13.3
Wind Kongming 3.1% 0
Wind Luxem Zander 3.1% 0
Wind Overlord 3.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.0% +11.1
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Wind Seiryuu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 5 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 5 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand -1.00 0 1 0
Sunblessed Gazelle -1.00 0 1 0
Backup Charger +1.00 1 0 0
Bestial Frenzy -1.00 0 1 0
Verdigris Decree +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/22937/archetypes/Wind Seiryuu