← AGORA HOBBY HVN Store Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at AGORA HOBBY HVN Store Championship
decks
2
(4.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.5%
avg ELO -4.5 per match
expected value
46.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1461
· median 1461
· range 1337–1584
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1091
Q1 1196
Q3 1391
1633
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 25.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 18.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Water Genbu | 9.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Fire Byakko | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
