← AGORA HOBBY HVN Store Championship
Water GenbuTier 1
at AGORA HOBBY HVN Store Championship
decks
4
(9.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19
13-5-1
overall winrate
71.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
68.5%
avg ELO +7.1 per match
expected value
59.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
60.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1361
· median 1400
· range 1153–1491
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1091
Q1 1196
Q3 1391
1633
75% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 25.6% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 56.2% | +3.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 18.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 71.0% | +13.5 |
| Fire Byakko | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +2.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 2.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
