← AGORA HOBBY HVN Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at AGORA HOBBY HVN Store Championship
decks
11
(25.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
43
23-15-5
overall winrate
59.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.8%
avg ELO +1.7 per match
expected value
56.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1303
· median 1304
· range 1112–1539
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
1091
Q1 1196
Q3 1391
1633
27% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
36% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 18.6% | 7 | 5-1-1 | 78.6% | 68.2% | 62.6% | +6.3 |
| Water Genbu | 9.3% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 43.8% | -3.0 |
| Fire Byakko | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.9% | +13.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.7% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.1% | -7.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.3% | -18.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.2 |
| Fire Exia | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.3% | +7.0 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -3.4 |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +2.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.1% | -7.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 8 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa, Water Resonance Bauble, Viridian Protective Trinket. Losers more often ran: Grand Crusader's Ring, Tariff Ring, Disenchant.
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Water Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Banned
Lost in Thought
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 3.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Censer of Restful Peace
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Song of Frost
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 1.
Grand Crusader's Ring
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Tariff Ring
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Disenchant
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Fire Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Jianyu, Fate's Premonition
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 0.
Fractal of Refreshment
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 15 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.38 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 4 | |
| Disenchant | -0.38 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.25 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.12 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.12 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 5 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 3 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 5 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.12 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Novice Healer | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |