← Grand Archive - Constructed - Regionals
Fire AggroTier 1
at Grand Archive - Constructed - Regionals
decks
3
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
9-7-2
overall winrate
55.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.2%
avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
50.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1327
· median 1287
· range 1262–1431
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1205
Q3 1438
1552
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 18.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.3% | -1.3 |
| Wind Allies | 15.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.8% | -15.6 |
| Water Genbu | 9.1% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 41.8% | -6.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.7% | +4.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.1 |
| Water Fractal | 6.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.1% | +5.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.7 |
| Wind Byakko | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tonoris | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
