← Grand Archive - Constructed - Regionals
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Grand Archive - Constructed - Regionals
decks
1
(3.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-3-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.6%
avg ELO -6.1 per match
expected value
47.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1547
· median 1547
· range 1547–1547
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1205
Q3 1438
1552
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 18.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.2% | -22.1 |
| Wind Allies | 15.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 33.5% | -12.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Water Genbu | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tonoris | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Ravishing Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
