← Grand Archive - Constructed - Regionals
Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Grand Archive - Constructed - Regionals
decks
2
(6.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-6-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.8%
avg ELO -5.6 per match
expected value
48.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1445
· median 1445
· range 1438–1452
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1205
Q3 1438
1552
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 18.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 35.0% | -11.2 |
| Wind Allies | 15.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +6.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 9.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.2% | -15.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.8% | +6.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tonoris | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.8 |
