Fire AggroTier 1
at CMB Regionals
decks
8
(14.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
34
19-14-1
overall winrate
57.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.7%
avg ELO +2.4 per match
expected value
53.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1310
· median 1332
· range 1207–1400
(8 pilots with an ELO rating)
937
Q1 1162
Q3 1353
1750
12% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 11.1% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 67.3% | +9.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.0% | +3.2 |
| Water Genbu | 7.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | +4.3 |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 38.6% | -8.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 68.5% | +11.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.5% | +9.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.4% | -0.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Zander | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Water Diana | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Water Silvie | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Water Zander | 1.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.2% | +7.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -4.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Rococo, Explosive Maven, Blazing Throw, Safeguard Amulet. Losers more often ran: Deflecting Edge, Reduce to Ash, Water Resonance Bauble.
Rococo, Explosive Maven
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Blazing Throw
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 3.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Safeguard Amulet
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Deflecting Edge
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Water Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Fire Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Forgelight Blade
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Hone by Fire
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 70 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 50 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deflecting Edge | -0.67 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Forgelight Blade | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Hone by Fire | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Creative Shock | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -0.33 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Fiery Momentum | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kingdom Informant | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignited Stab | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Blazing Lunge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polkhawk, Boisterous Riot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamebolt Arbalist | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Incendiary Shot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Contraband Revolver | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tinderflare Pivot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volatile Fusilier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fireworks Display | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Airship Cannoneer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |