Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at CMB Regionals
decks
3
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
9-6-1
overall winrate
59.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.2%
avg ELO +3.3 per match
expected value
48.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1387
· median 1353
· range 1231–1576
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
937
Q1 1162
Q3 1353
1750
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.8% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 31.5% | -11.9 |
| Water Fractal | 11.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 66.7% | +10.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Water Genbu | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.5% | +10.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.7 |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Zander | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.9 |
| Water Diana | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
