Water Tera MageTier 2
at CMB Regionals
decks
1
(1.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.9%
avg ELO -8.1 per match
expected value
53.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1420
· median 1420
· range 1420–1420
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
937
Q1 1162
Q3 1353
1750
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Water Fractal | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.4% | -23.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -4.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Fire Exia | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Zander | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tera Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
