Water FractalTier 2
at CMB Regionals
decks
6
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
34
14-18-2
overall winrate
44.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.3%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
44.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1233
· median 1222
· range 1138–1390
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
937
Q1 1162
Q3 1353
1750
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.8% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 32.7% | -9.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.0 |
| Water Genbu | 7.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.2% | -10.4 |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 33.3% | -10.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.8% | +18.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.7% | +4.2 |
| Fire Exia | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Zander | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Slimes | 1.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.2% | +11.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Water Silvie | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 1.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.1% | -9.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.7% | +6.0 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.5 |
