Water FractalTier 1
at 貓腳印東門店 店家冠軍賽
decks
3
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
8-6-3
overall winrate
55.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.2%
avg ELO -1.9 per match
expected value
53.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1429
· median 1441
· range 1303–1543
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
988
Q1 1232
Q3 1443
1543
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 16.7% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 57.2% | +4.6 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 45.0% | -3.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.1% | -8.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.8 |
| Fire Exia | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.7% | -22.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.5% | -21.6 |
| Water Kongming | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Zander | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
