EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Yeti Webcam 4/27.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 100.0% | 51.2% | 60.0% | 50.6% | 1444 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 6.2% | 5 | 80.0% | 50.9% | 57.5% | 50.4% | 1352 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 75.0% | 50.6% | 57.1% | 50.4% | 1215 | — |
| 4 | Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 75.0% | 49.4% | 56.7% | 49.8% | 1511 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Allies | 2 | 12.5% | 4 | 75.0% | 50.7% | 56.7% | 50.4% | 1205 | — |
| 6 | Water Tera Diao Chan | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.3% | 53.3% | 49.8% | 1265 | — |
| 7 | Water Umbra Ranger | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.2% | 50.0% | 50.1% | 1548 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Fractal | 3 | 18.8% | 9 | 44.4% | 50.2% | 48.7% | 50.0% | 1249 | — |
| 9 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.7% | 48.6% | 50.1% | 1158 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Seiryuu | 1 | 6.2% | 3 | 33.3% | 50.2% | 45.0% | 49.9% | 1182 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Zander | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 25.0% | 48.6% | 43.3% | 49.3% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Tera Cleric | 1 | 6.2% | 3 | 0.0% | 49.1% | 40.0% | 49.5% | 1144 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 12.5% | 6 | 0.0% | 48.7% | 39.0% | 49.4% | 1032 | ↓ low |