Fire AggroTier 1
at 5/24 Fayble Online Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.9% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 46.2% | -1.9 |
| Wind Allies | 10.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.5 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.8 |
| Water Polkhawk | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +1.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 56 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 56 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiery Momentum | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Demolition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignited Stab | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flashfire Horse | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dragon's Dawn | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Oppressive Presence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |