Water Tera MageTier 2
at 5/24 Fayble Online Regional
decks
1
(2.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
0-3-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.0%
avg ELO -3.8 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1053
· median 1053
· range 1053–1053
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1227
Q3 1471
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 16.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 10.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Polkhawk | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tera Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
