EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DX Store Champion Main Event. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Water Genbu

53.8%

3.3% share · 5 matches

26.7% share · 25 matches

3rd

Fire Firebloom Burn

51.1%

3.3% share · 5 matches

↓ low

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Water Fractal	8	26.7%	25	74.0%	69.8%	59.7%	59.6%	1316	—
2	Water Genbu	1	3.3%	5	70.0%	56.3%	53.8%	50.8%	1394	↑ top
3	Fire Firebloom Burn	1	3.3%	5	40.0%	46.4%	51.1%	51.7%	1139	↓ low
4	Wind Exia	1	3.3%	5	60.0%	51.1%	51.0%	49.7%	1376	↑ top
5	Fire Luxem Assassin	2	6.7%	10	55.0%	52.1%	49.3%	49.4%	1390	↑ top
6	Wind Allies	2	6.7%	8	62.5%	50.4%	48.7%	46.3%	1266	—
7	Wind Seiryuu	2	6.7%	9	61.1%	60.1%	48.6%	50.0%	1271	—
8	Wind Byakko	1	3.3%	5	60.0%	47.8%	48.2%	46.1%	1584	↑ top
9	Wind Shadowstrike	1	3.3%	5	40.0%	50.3%	46.2%	48.5%	1068	↓ low
10	Wind Astra Cleric	4	13.3%	16	28.1%	32.4%	43.9%	42.4%	1268	—
11	Wind Crux Mage	2	6.7%	9	33.3%	37.0%	43.7%	43.5%	1452	↑ top
12	Fire Suzaku	2	6.7%	9	44.4%	53.2%	43.3%	47.6%	1154	↓ low
13	Fire Aggro	2	6.7%	8	43.8%	51.8%	42.7%	44.5%	1317	—
14	Fire Seiryuu	1	3.3%	2	0.0%	33.1%	40.0%	39.9%	1168	↓ low
15	Water Ravishing Mill	1	3.3%	5	0.0%	28.0%	40.0%	42.1%	1161	↓ low