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Water FractalTier 2
at Gamersshop Gaming Store HVN Regionals 2025
decks
12
(11.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
58
26-28-4
overall winrate
48.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.8%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
48.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1227
· median 1185
· range 989–1479
(12 pilots with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1150
Q3 1379
1668
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 19.4% | 11 | 5-6-0 | 45.5% | 46.7% | 50.9% | +0.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.7% | 8 | 2-5-1 | 31.2% | 37.5% | 39.7% | -4.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.8% | 6 | 1-3-2 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 34.0% | -8.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.0% | +7.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.8% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 63.6% | +7.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.9% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -6.7 |
| Water Genbu | 4.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 52.7% | +2.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 73.6% | +17.6 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.7 |
| Water Exia | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -3.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.8 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 12 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Fractal of Refreshment, Acquiescing Rejection, Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa. Losers more often ran: Frostbind, Fast Cure, Viridian Protective Trinket.
Fractal of Refreshment
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Acquiescing Rejection
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Xuchang, Frozen Citadel
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Banned
Lost in Thought
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Chill to the Bone
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Frostbind
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Fast Cure
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 60 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 47 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Awakened Deacon | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Halt | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Fractal of Rain | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Shimmering Refraction | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fishing Accident | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Orb of Regret | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Glimmering Refusal | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Novice Healer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Channeling Stone | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sweet Ambrosia | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hydroguard Retainer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Erudite Strategist | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bubble Mage | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ardent Cloudstriker | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coriolis Ward | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Taiji of Crystal Strategems | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 |