← Gamersshop Gaming Store HVN Regionals 2025
Water Ravishing MillTier 3
at Gamersshop Gaming Store HVN Regionals 2025
decks
2
(1.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
2-6-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.6%
avg ELO -4.5 per match
expected value
45.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1142
· median 1142
· range 1127–1156
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1150
Q3 1379
1668
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 19.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.7 |
| Water Fractal | 11.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Wind Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.8 |
| Wind Silvie | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
